The Serendipity Machine
David Green begins the 1st chapter of his brilliant book “The Serendipity Machine” with: “It’s risky business to make predictions about the future of technology” and than he goes on to demonstrate it by referring to IBM’s founder’s prediction about the future of computers. We know how off the mark Tom Watson was. This poor prediction is often quoted by many. Fair enough or is it? Tom Watson predicted 5 computers. What about the other crystal ball gazers? What did they predict? The point here is that whilst it is risky business to make predictions, the mankind owes the risk takers its existence. I submit that taking risk and erring on the risky side is still far less perilous than hiding under a rock. I’m not suggesting here that David Green mocks Watson. On the contrary, as you read Green's book the Watson’s prediction exemplifies as well as amplifies the serendipity effect. For what did Watson have besides his experience and vision to make such prediction?
With all the retrospection we have today we keep wondering how Watson could screw up so badly, yet I see no evidence that most of today’s visionaries’ view is any less myopic than those who had no such retrospection. We have now all the high tech gizmoes, quirky algorithms and fancy models; are we any better predictors of the future technology? I doubt it. In fact some very obvious realities are still viewed with amazement. For example the amazement about the “incredibly fast” take-up of the Internet in the recent decade. The Internet has been around for many decades and was fast becoming an archaic technology until the introduction of graphical browsers. Once PCs became affordable and the GUI browsers were pulled over the telent and its clumsy IBM variant TN3270 the fast take-up just had to be a natural thing. What’s so amazing about seeing a thirsty crowd rushing to a well? If anything, it is more amazing that WWW and GUI browsers were introduced so late. With the rollout of affordable PCs, WWWed content and the interaction complexity dropped to clickable level it would be extremely amazing if the fast rate of the Internet take-up wasn’t huge.
Often the truly surprising discoveries get overlooked, ignored or oversimplified because we focus too much on making everything simple. To quote H.L.Mencken: “ For every complex problem, there is an answer that is short, simple and wrong.” It seems we get amazed by huge numbers – it is simple - without the context behind those numbers, which is complex.
I started this deposition with Green’s 1st chapter. I may as well end it with Green’s last chapter (ch. 12) where he begins it with a quote from Peter Nelson “One of the problems the Internet has introduced is that in the electronic village all the village idiots have Internet access.”
The serendipity effect as Green describes it in his book is astonishingly beautiful and truly amazing, until we become obsessed with sensationalisaition of the trivial and the typical whilst being beset by complex problems and phenomenal phenomenon we choose to trivialise. "It is serendipity gone mad." (David Green).
Saturday, March 19, 2005
Tuesday, March 01, 2005
Lo^oK up
Terms, words & expressions (old & new)...
A coxcomb is ugly all over with the effectation of a fine gentleman. (Dr.Johson)
A coxcomb is one whom simpletons believe to be a man of merit. (La Bruyere)
A coxcomb is ugly all over with the effectation of a fine gentleman. (Dr.Johson)
A coxcomb is one whom simpletons believe to be a man of merit. (La Bruyere)
Another Look @ Easter
An email i received recently from a friend. I'm usually suspicious about "happy" funny bunny laying eggs Easter messages. Oh i may as well be blunt here! The idea of cute pink bunnies and chocolate eggs is outright idiotic. Has nothing to do with the real meaning of Easter. So for a change I received an email message with a punch. Here it is.
Read only if you have time for God!
Let me tell you, make sure you read all the way to the bottom. I almost deleted this email but I was blessed when I got to the end.
God, when I received this e-mail, I thought...
I don't have time for this... And, this is really inappropriate during work.
Then, I realized that this kind of thinking is... Exactly, what has caused lot of the problems in our world today.
We try to keep God in church on Sunday morning...
Maybe, Sunday night...
And, the unlikely event of a midweek service.
We do like to have Him around during sickness...
And, of course, at funerals.
However, we don't have time, or room, for Him during work or play...
Because.. That's the part of our lives we think... We can, and should, handle on our own.
May God forgive me for ever thinking...
That... there is a time or place where..
HE is not to be FIRST in my life.
We should always have time to remember all HE has done for us.
If, You aren't ashamed to do this...
Please follow the directions.
Jesus said, "If you are ashamed of me, I will be ashamed of you before my Father."
Not ashamed?
Pass this on ONLY IF YOU MEAN IT!!
Yes, I do Love God.
HE is my source of existence and Savior.
He keeps me functioning each and every day. Without Him, I will be nothing. But, with Christ, HE strengthens me. (Phil 4:13)
This is the simplest test.
If You Love God... And, are not ashamed of all the marvelous things HE has done for you...
Send this to ten people and the person who sent it to you!
I don't think I know 10 people who would admit they love Jesus. Do You love Him?
THE POEM
I knelt to pray but not for long, I had too much to do. I had to hurry and get to work For bills would soon be due. So I knelt and said a hurried prayer,
And jumped up off my knees.
My Christian duty was now done
My soul could rest at ease.
All day long I had no time
To spread a word of cheer. No time to speak of Christ to friends,
They'd laugh at me I'd fear.
No time, no time, too much to do,
That was my constant cry,
No time to give to souls in need
But at last the time, the time to die.
I went before the Lord, I came, I stood with downcast eyes. For in his hands God held a book; It was the book of life.
God looked into his book and said
"Your name I cannot find.
I once was going to write it down...
But never found the time"
Now do you have the time to pass it on?
Make sure that you scroll through to the end.
Easy vs. Hard
Why is it so hard to tell the truth but Yet so easy to tell a lie?
Why are we so sleepy in church but Right when the sermon is over we suddenly wake up?
Why is it so hard to talk about God but yet so easy to talk about nasty stuff?
Why is it so boring to look at a Christian magazine, but yet so easy to look at a nasty one?
Why is it so easy to delete a Godly e- ma il, but yet we forward all of the nasty ones?
Why are the churches getting smaller but yet the bars and dance clubs are getting larger?
Do you give up? Think about it . Are you going to forward this, or delete it?
Just remember-God is watching you. Prayer Wheel-Let's see the devil stop this one!
Here's what the wheel is all about. When you receive this, say a prayer for the person that sent it to you....
That's all you have to do....
There is nothing attached....
This is so powerful....
Do not stop the wheel, please....
Of all the free gifts we may receive, Prayer is the very best one.
There are no costs, but wonderful rewards... GOD BLESS!
May God keep you and bless you. If this doesn't give you chills, nothing will...this message is very true. Hope you are all as blessed as I was from this story. I wonder how many people will delete this without reading it because of the title on it?
There once was a man named George Thomas, pastor in a small New England town. One Easter Sunday morning he came to the Church carrying a rusty, bent, old bird cage, and set it by the pulpit. Eyebrows were raised and, as if in response, Pastor Thomas began to speak..."I was walking through town yesterday when I saw a young boy coming toward me swinging this bird cage. On the bottom of the cage were three little wild birds, shivering with cold and fright. I stopped the lad and asked, "What you got there, son?" "Just some old birds," came the reply.
"What are you gonna do with them?" I asked.
"Take 'em home and have fun with 'em," he answered. "I'm gonna tease 'em and pull out their feathers to make 'em fight. I'm gonna have a real good time." "But you'll get tired of those birds sooner or later. What will you do?"
"Oh, I got some cats," said the little boy. "They like birds. I'll take 'em to them."
The pastor was silent for a moment. "How much do you want for those birds, son?"
"Huh?? !!! Why, you don't want them birds, mister. They're just plain old field birds. They don't sing. They ain't even pretty!"
"How much?" the pastor asked again.
The boy sized up the pastor as if he were crazy and said, "$10?"
The pastor reached in his pocket and took out a ten dollar bill. He placed it in the boy's hand. In a flash, the boy was gone.
The pastor picked up the cage and gently carried it to the end of the alley where there was a tree and a grassy spot Setting the cage down, he opened the door, and by softly tapping the bars persuaded the birds out, setting them free.
Well, that explained the empty bird cage on the pulpit, and then the pastor began to tell this story.
One day Satan and Jesus were having a conversation. Satan had just come from the Garden of Eden, and he was gloating and boasting. "Yes, sir, I just caught the world full of people down there. Set me a trap, used bait I knew they couldn't resist. Got 'em all!"
"What are you going to do with them?" Jesus asked.
Satan replied, "Oh, I'm gonna have fun! I'm gonna teach them how to marry and divorce each other, how to hate and abuse each other, how to drink and smoke and curse. I'm gonna teach them how to invent guns and bombs and kill each other. I'm really gonna have fun!"
"And what will you do when you get done with them?" Jesus asked. "Oh, I'll kill 'em," Satan glared proudly. "How much do you want for them?" Jesus asked
"Oh, you don't want those people. They ain't no good. Why, you'll take them and they'll just hate you. They'll spit on you, curse you and kill you. You don't want those people!!"
"How much?" He asked again.
Satan looked at Jesus and sneered, "All your blood, tears and your life."
Jesus said, "DONE!"
Then He paid the price.
The pastor picked up the cage he opened the door and he walked from the pulpit.
Notes: Isn't it funny how simple it is for people to trash God and then wonder why the world's going to hell.
Isn't it funny how someone can say "I believe in God" but still follow Satan (who, by the way, also "believes" in God).
Isn't it funny how you can send a thousand jokes through e-mail and they spread like wildfire, but when you start sending messages regarding the Lord, people think twice about sharing?
Isn't it funny how when you go to forward this message, you will not send it to many on your address list because you're not sure what they believe, or what they will think of you for sending it to them.
Isn't it funny how I can be more worried about what other people think of me than what God thinks of me.
I pray, for everyone who sends this to their entire address book, they will be blessed by God in a way special for them.
And send it back to the person who sent it, to let them know that indeed it was sent out to many more
<>< <>< <>< <>< <>< <>< <>< <>< <>< <>< <><
Read only if you have time for God!
Let me tell you, make sure you read all the way to the bottom. I almost deleted this email but I was blessed when I got to the end.
God, when I received this e-mail, I thought...
I don't have time for this... And, this is really inappropriate during work.
Then, I realized that this kind of thinking is... Exactly, what has caused lot of the problems in our world today.
We try to keep God in church on Sunday morning...
Maybe, Sunday night...
And, the unlikely event of a midweek service.
We do like to have Him around during sickness...
And, of course, at funerals.
However, we don't have time, or room, for Him during work or play...
Because.. That's the part of our lives we think... We can, and should, handle on our own.
May God forgive me for ever thinking...
That... there is a time or place where..
HE is not to be FIRST in my life.
We should always have time to remember all HE has done for us.
If, You aren't ashamed to do this...
Please follow the directions.
Jesus said, "If you are ashamed of me, I will be ashamed of you before my Father."
Not ashamed?
Pass this on ONLY IF YOU MEAN IT!!
Yes, I do Love God.
HE is my source of existence and Savior.
He keeps me functioning each and every day. Without Him, I will be nothing. But, with Christ, HE strengthens me. (Phil 4:13)
This is the simplest test.
If You Love God... And, are not ashamed of all the marvelous things HE has done for you...
Send this to ten people and the person who sent it to you!
I don't think I know 10 people who would admit they love Jesus. Do You love Him?
THE POEM
I knelt to pray but not for long, I had too much to do. I had to hurry and get to work For bills would soon be due. So I knelt and said a hurried prayer,
And jumped up off my knees.
My Christian duty was now done
My soul could rest at ease.
All day long I had no time
To spread a word of cheer. No time to speak of Christ to friends,
They'd laugh at me I'd fear.
No time, no time, too much to do,
That was my constant cry,
No time to give to souls in need
But at last the time, the time to die.
I went before the Lord, I came, I stood with downcast eyes. For in his hands God held a book; It was the book of life.
God looked into his book and said
"Your name I cannot find.
I once was going to write it down...
But never found the time"
Now do you have the time to pass it on?
Make sure that you scroll through to the end.
Easy vs. Hard
Why is it so hard to tell the truth but Yet so easy to tell a lie?
Why are we so sleepy in church but Right when the sermon is over we suddenly wake up?
Why is it so hard to talk about God but yet so easy to talk about nasty stuff?
Why is it so boring to look at a Christian magazine, but yet so easy to look at a nasty one?
Why is it so easy to delete a Godly e- ma il, but yet we forward all of the nasty ones?
Why are the churches getting smaller but yet the bars and dance clubs are getting larger?
Do you give up? Think about it . Are you going to forward this, or delete it?
Just remember-God is watching you. Prayer Wheel-Let's see the devil stop this one!
Here's what the wheel is all about. When you receive this, say a prayer for the person that sent it to you....
That's all you have to do....
There is nothing attached....
This is so powerful....
Do not stop the wheel, please....
Of all the free gifts we may receive, Prayer is the very best one.
There are no costs, but wonderful rewards... GOD BLESS!
May God keep you and bless you. If this doesn't give you chills, nothing will...this message is very true. Hope you are all as blessed as I was from this story. I wonder how many people will delete this without reading it because of the title on it?
There once was a man named George Thomas, pastor in a small New England town. One Easter Sunday morning he came to the Church carrying a rusty, bent, old bird cage, and set it by the pulpit. Eyebrows were raised and, as if in response, Pastor Thomas began to speak..."I was walking through town yesterday when I saw a young boy coming toward me swinging this bird cage. On the bottom of the cage were three little wild birds, shivering with cold and fright. I stopped the lad and asked, "What you got there, son?" "Just some old birds," came the reply.
"What are you gonna do with them?" I asked.
"Take 'em home and have fun with 'em," he answered. "I'm gonna tease 'em and pull out their feathers to make 'em fight. I'm gonna have a real good time." "But you'll get tired of those birds sooner or later. What will you do?"
"Oh, I got some cats," said the little boy. "They like birds. I'll take 'em to them."
The pastor was silent for a moment. "How much do you want for those birds, son?"
"Huh?? !!! Why, you don't want them birds, mister. They're just plain old field birds. They don't sing. They ain't even pretty!"
"How much?" the pastor asked again.
The boy sized up the pastor as if he were crazy and said, "$10?"
The pastor reached in his pocket and took out a ten dollar bill. He placed it in the boy's hand. In a flash, the boy was gone.
The pastor picked up the cage and gently carried it to the end of the alley where there was a tree and a grassy spot Setting the cage down, he opened the door, and by softly tapping the bars persuaded the birds out, setting them free.
Well, that explained the empty bird cage on the pulpit, and then the pastor began to tell this story.
One day Satan and Jesus were having a conversation. Satan had just come from the Garden of Eden, and he was gloating and boasting. "Yes, sir, I just caught the world full of people down there. Set me a trap, used bait I knew they couldn't resist. Got 'em all!"
"What are you going to do with them?" Jesus asked.
Satan replied, "Oh, I'm gonna have fun! I'm gonna teach them how to marry and divorce each other, how to hate and abuse each other, how to drink and smoke and curse. I'm gonna teach them how to invent guns and bombs and kill each other. I'm really gonna have fun!"
"And what will you do when you get done with them?" Jesus asked. "Oh, I'll kill 'em," Satan glared proudly. "How much do you want for them?" Jesus asked
"Oh, you don't want those people. They ain't no good. Why, you'll take them and they'll just hate you. They'll spit on you, curse you and kill you. You don't want those people!!"
"How much?" He asked again.
Satan looked at Jesus and sneered, "All your blood, tears and your life."
Jesus said, "DONE!"
Then He paid the price.
The pastor picked up the cage he opened the door and he walked from the pulpit.
Notes: Isn't it funny how simple it is for people to trash God and then wonder why the world's going to hell.
Isn't it funny how someone can say "I believe in God" but still follow Satan (who, by the way, also "believes" in God).
Isn't it funny how you can send a thousand jokes through e-mail and they spread like wildfire, but when you start sending messages regarding the Lord, people think twice about sharing?
Isn't it funny how when you go to forward this message, you will not send it to many on your address list because you're not sure what they believe, or what they will think of you for sending it to them.
Isn't it funny how I can be more worried about what other people think of me than what God thinks of me.
I pray, for everyone who sends this to their entire address book, they will be blessed by God in a way special for them.
And send it back to the person who sent it, to let them know that indeed it was sent out to many more
<>< <>< <>< <>< <>< <>< <>< <>< <>< <>< <><
"Of all the properties which belong to honorable men, not one is so highly prized as that of character." --Henry Clay (Early statesman from my home state of Kentucky)
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